Prediction of future groundwater levels under representative concentration pathway scenarios using an inclusive multiple model coupled with artificial neural networks

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Groundwater (GW) plays a key role in water supply basins. As global warming and climate change affect groundwater level (GWL), it is important to predict for planning managing resources. This study investigates the GWL of Yazd-Ardakan Plain basin Iran base period 1979–2005 predicts periods 2020–2059 2060–2099. Lagged temperature rainfall are used as inputs hybrid standalone artificial neural network (ANN) models. In this study, rat swarm algorithm (RSA), particle optimisation (PSO), salp (SSA), genetic (GA) adjust ANN The outcomes these models then entered into an inclusive multiple model (IMM) ensemble model. output also inserted IMM improve estimation accuracy temperature, rainfall, GWL. monthly average 12.9 °C, while temperatures under RCP 4.5 8.5 scenarios 14.5 15.1 2060–2099 they 16.41 18.5 °C same scenarios, respectively. future periods, low comparison with period. ANN-RSA, ANN-SSA, ANN-PSO, ANN-GA, Outputs IMM, ANN, five (ANN-RSA, ANN-GA) indicate that root mean square errors (RMSE) 2.12, 3.2, 4.58, 6.12, 6.98, 7.89 m, respectively, testing level. It found depletion 0.60–0.88 m 0.80–1.16 1.49–1.97 1.75–1.98 results highlight need prevent overexploitation GW Ardakan-Yazd avoid shortages future.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Water and Climate Change

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['2040-2244', '2408-9354']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2022.198